November 5th, 2025 - The Mine Wire

METALS MARKET

^{**For our chart above we are taking prices from Tuesday 4pm EST to Tuesday 4pm EST, so not the typical week of Monday through Friday.}

KEEPING AN EYE ON GOVERNMENT DECISIONS

Here are some of the notable government policy moves this week:

• 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 The United States & China came to an apparent agreement that would see tariff rates on China dropped from 57% to 47% in return for soybean purchases and the continued flow of rare earths. The market was muted on the news and many analysts have called it a fragile truce as some of the core issues are not resolved. Does this mean we should pick up some rare earth miners on the dip?

• 🇺🇸 In other U.S. news the Trump administration announced $100m to upgrade coal fired power plants.

• 🇨🇦 Up in Canada, Tim Hodgson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, was busy hosting his G7 counterparts. The Minister announced that the group would invest $6.4 billion into 26 critical mineral projects to support their domestic mining industries and build alternatives to Chinese minerals. (Canada)

• 🇨🇦 The Ontario government was also full speed ahead this week with a host of announcements. First it unveiled Frontier Lithium’s PAK Lithium Project near Red Lake as its first fast track project under the “One Project One Process” framework. It was also busy signing an agreement with the Webequie First Nation for a road to the Ring of Fire. And if that wasn’t enough, the government rolled out an additional $30m to launch a new round of its Hydrogen Innovation Fund.

• 🇨🇦 The Manitoba government is partnering with the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce and the Canada Infrastructure Bank to invest $1m in a feasibility study on northern infrastructure needs for critical mineral sector development. Over in Newfoundland & Labrador, the newly elected Conservative government under Premier Tony Wakeham has appointed Lloyd Parrott as Minister of Energy and Mines. If you have a project in the province, make sure you get that congratulations letter in pronto!

•  🇦🇺 The Western Australian government released their response to the statutory review of the Mining Rehabilitation Fund (MRF) which Marsden Jacob Associates completed in 2024. Long story short, the fund is fit for purpose and doing its job, but 16 recommendations were made which the government largely supports. It will work with stakeholders to progress those that are feasible. (Western Australia)

• 🇱🇷 Liberia’s President Joseph Boakai announced that he was replacing the country’s mining minister and its top mining regulator in order to improve governance and efficiency as the African nation looks to attract more investment from the United States and others. Hmmm.

• 🇬🇭 Over in Ghana, the country has announced an audit that will cover major miners including Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields, Perseus, Asante Gold and China's Zijin. Audit teams will scrutinize production volumes, mineral flows, tax and royalty payments and environmental compliance.

S&A STRATEGIES SPECIAL REPORT - CANADA BUDGET 2025

Branded as a plan to “spend less to invest more,” Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first Budget balances fiscal tightening with what the government is calling “generational investments” to strengthen economic competitiveness, accelerate major projects, and diversify Canada’s trade exposure, particularly in light of a more protectionist U.S. under President Trump.

Leading up to today, the government hinted at several headline initiatives that are included in the fiscal blueprint, including the rollout of automated tax filing, a national anti-fraud strategy, and extensions to the school food program. But the major narrative heading into budget day was competitiveness, specifically climate competitiveness. Finance Minister Champagne has reinforced that the plan will shift industrial policy to drive investment and support exports, with an emphasis on reducing barriers to major projects.

The Budget comes in with a $78.3 billion deficit although $40+ billion is marked for nation building projects. The government has promised $58.2 billion in federal service cuts over the next 5 years, but where those cuts will come from is still murky. The government has promised to reduce the public service by 40,000 roles of which 10,000 have already been eliminated. It will also cut international assistance by $800 million a year. As for the other named initiatives, they are light on details or low on financial impact. Expect the federal government to take a hard look at its balance sheet and spending over the coming year.

WHAT ARE SOME OF THE KEY HIGHLIGHTS:

• $2 billion over five years to Natural Resources Canada to establish a Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund that will support key projects through equity, loan guarantees, and offtake agreements, along with $50 million over five years to administer the program.

• $371.8 million over four years to create a First and Last Mile Fund to advance near term critical minerals projects and supply chains, absorbing the existing Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund and leveraging up to $1.5 billion through 2029-30 for supporting clean energy and transportation infrastructure linked to critical minerals development.

• Expand eligibility for the Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit (CMETC) to include an additional 12 critical minerals necessary for defence, semiconductors, energy, and clean technologies: bismuth, cesium, chromium, fluorspar, germanium, indium, manganese, molybdenum, niobium, tantalum, tin, and tungsten.

• Expand eligibility for the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit to support polymetallic extraction and processing, a longstanding MAC request, and expanding the list of critical minerals eligible for the Clean Technology Manufacturing investment tax credit to include antimony, indium, gallium, germanium, and scandium.

• Announced a Productivity Super-Deduction—a set of enhanced tax incentives covering all new capital investment that allows businesses to write off a larger share of the cost of these investments right away. These will also make it easier for businesses to invest and grow.

• Allocates $1 billion to Transport Canada to create an Arctic Infrastructure Fund.

• Increases funding to the Canada Infrastructure Bank by $10 billion for nation-building projects.

• Increases total business facilitated by Export Development Canada by $25 billion by 2030 to support expanding Canada's exports and trade development activities in sectors of strategic importance for Canada, including in critical minerals, energy, clean technology, infrastructure, and defence.

• $5B over 6 years for a new Strategic Response Fund to help firms across all sectors adapt to tariff impacts, maintain industrial capacity, and expand into new markets—including $1B already committed through the Strategic Innovation Fund to support the steel industry’s transition and strengthen domestic supply chains.

• $570M over three years through Labour Market Development Agreements to fund training and employment supports for workers affected by tariffs and global market shifts.

• $382.9M over five years (and $56.1M ongoing) to establish Workforce Alliances and a Workforce Innovation Fund, strengthening collaboration between employers, unions, and industry to support skills development and help businesses in key sectors recruit and retain talent in a changing labour market.

• Creation of the $10B Large Enterprise Tariff Loan facility to provide liquidity to strong Canadian firms affected by tariff pressures, with the first loan—$400M to Algoma Steel (plus $100M from Ontario)—supporting stability in the steel sector amid global trade disruptions

HOW DO YOU TAKE ADVANTAGE?

While the Liberal government does need to find 2 votes to pass their budget (or hope that some opposition members abstain from voting), for now let us assume it passes.

This budget has a host of funding opportunities and tax incentives for those in the mining, manufacturing, processing, technology and artificial intelligence spaces. The first step is to understand what is in the budget and what may be applicable to your organization.

If you would like a free consultation with S&A Strategies, a full service boutique government relations firm, then please contact them here. If you belong to an industry association, they are also an excellent resource when it comes to understanding how to leverage government opportunities.

MINING MATTERS FROM AROUND THE WORLD 🌎

• 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 Chicago-based Coeur Mining is pitching a friendly takeover of Toronto’s New Gold in an all-stock deal worth roughly US$7bn. The proposed deal would give Coeur shareholders a 62% stake in the combined entity with New Gold shareholders holding the remaining 38%. The pitch to investors? It will bring more investor attention, create a better risk profile and will bring together two strong teams. (PR Newswire)

• 🇨🇦 🇲🇽 Mexico’s Fresnillo also had its eyes on Canada this past week as it made a C$780 million (US$556 million) in cash offer for Probe Gold (TSX: PRB). Fresnillo agreed to pay a 39% premium for Probe Gold at C$3.65 per share. "After nine years of steady progress advancing the Novador project, we believe this is an opportune moment to transfer the project to an experienced operator," Probe Gold CEO David Palmer. Despite having 8 mines in Mexico, this will be the miners first foray into the Canadian market. Fresnillo gets an advanced project in the mighty Val-d’Or region. (Probe Gold)

• 🇨🇦 Agnico Eagle announced in its earnings that it plans to create a subsidiary to focus on its exploratory critical minerals investments. The release said, Avenir Minerals Limited will be dedicated to evaluating and advancing critical mineral opportunities in the regions in which Agnico Eagle operates, with an initial geographic focus on Canada. This initiative will allow the Company to maintain its disciplined focus on its core operations while exploring opportunities to enhance long-term shareholder value. Its current investments are worth about $80m and it will provide an additional $50m to the subsidiary to examine new opportunities. We have to say, what a well run ship Agnico Eagle Mines has. The CEO is constantly speaking to investors about the smart investment of capital and here again, the miner is allowing some exploration through a subsidiary but not losing focus or becoming distracted by today’s “hot metal”. We like it a lot.

• 🇨🇦 The Canada Growth Fund & Rio Tinto announced a $25m investment to advance the Canadian production of scandium oxide. Meanwhile, Ucore Rare Metals Inc. has received conditional approval from the Government of Canada for up to $36.3m in funding to develop a commercial processing facility that will focus on refining samarium and gadolinium in Kingston, Ontario.

• 🇺🇸 South of the border, Pittsburgh’s Mine Vision Systems announced a $12.5m Series A to fuel the rapid execution of MVS's product strategy and expansion of its decision-making platform for underground operations. Over in Sparks Nevada, Paragon Geochemical Laboratories Inc. secured an investment from McEwen Mining that gives the Canadian miner a 31% stake.

• 🇺🇸 Toronto’s Kinterra Capital and its operating subsidiary, Southwest Critical Materials LLC got an early Christmas present with the receipt of a Non-Binding Letter of Interest from the Export-Import Bank of the United States indicating potential debt financing of up to US$200m. The potential funding is to complete the fully financed restart of the Pumpkin Hollow underground copper mine in Nevada as well as to advance technical work related to the Southwest Open Pit project. (CISION)

• 🇰🇷 🇦🇺 BHP and South Korea’s POSCO have signed an agreement to advance the production of "near zero emissions" iron. Reuters reported that, “The iron will be produced at a demonstration plant at POSCO's steelworks in South Korea's portside city of Pohang, using a hydrogen-based production process and an electric smelting furnace.”

• 🇨🇳 China's state-backed non-ferrous metals industry association is calling for capacity caps on metals such as copper, lead and zinc. In China they use the term neijuan, similar to “involution”, a phenomenon where competition intensifies without leading to real progress, often due to overcapacity. The combination of scarce feedstock and a rapid expansion of smelting capacity has hurt smelters on both ends.

MINING BITS

• 🌐 The Global Investor Commission on Mining 2030 which includes PIMCO, ING L&G, Allianz Investment Management, Church of England Pension Fund and Royal London Asset Management and which controls some $18 trillion in assets, has called for the creation of an independent International Minerals Agency to be modelled after the International Energy Agency. The agency would “monitor global demand and supply of minerals; track illicit minerals flows; codify and support best practice legislation as well as provide key data of which companies are progressing towards global performance standards to better inform debt and equity markets.” (Mining 2030)

• 🇫🇷 Another gutsy heist took place in France last week, when 2 armed men used explosives to gain entry to the Pourquery Laboratories precious metals refinery. They loaded up roughly €12m (US$13.8m) worth of gold before being chased down by police like the dirty dogs they are. In total, 6 people were arrested in connection with the heist while 5 employees at the refinery suffered minor injuries from the explosion. Hats off to the police that chased these “suspects”, ahem criminals and arrested them. (BBC)

• 🇨🇦 If you are based in Toronto or Vancouver, check out these upcoming mining events: Mining & Critical Minerals Canada, Nov 12-13, in Toronto and MiningTech North America, Nov 20-21, in Vancouver. The event in Vancouver is expecting over 700 senior level executives from international organizations, governments and stakeholders from more than 20 countries for 2 days of partnering, knowledge sharing, networking and business matching. With topics on AI, digital transformation and energy transition among others, this sounds like one to check out.

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