May 21st, 2025 - The Mine Wire

METALS MARKET

🇺🇸 Moodys became the last of the three major credit rating agencies to downgrade the United States from AAA to Aa1. Fitch made its downgrade in 2023, while Standard & Poor’s did it in 2011. Last year, the deficit was $1.8 trillion, equal to 6.4% of GDP. The national debt now stands at a staggering $36.2 trillion.

^{**For our chart above we are taking prices from Tuesday 4pm EST to Tuesday 4pm EST, so not the typical week of Monday through Friday.}

ONTARIO GOVERNMENT DELIVERS BUDGET 2025/26

OVERVIEW

Last Thursday, Ontario’s Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy delivered the Ford government’s first Budget of its third mandate. With a backdrop of tariff threats from the United States, it isn’t surprising that the focus on this budget is the economy.

Ontario’s economy is showing signs that the 25% tariffs on both steel and aluminum are having an impact, particularly on the province’s auto sector which contributes over $11 billion to Canada’s GDP and employs more than 104,000 people. Last week, Honda announced it was pausing a $15B investment at its Alliston, Ontario plant. In addition, the unemployment rate in Ontario hit a near record high of 7.8% earlier this month, the highest it’s been since 2013.

Prior to the election of Trump in the U.S., Ontario's fiscal position was showing improvement. The projected deficit for 2024–25 was reduced to $6.6 billion, down from the previously forecasted $9.8 billion. The government had anticipated a further decrease to a $1.5 billion deficit in 2025–26 and was aiming for a return to surplus by 2026–27. This positive shift is attributed to better-than-expected economic performance and increased revenues, however, last week’s budget contains much higher deficit numbers and helps demonstrate the impact that the trade war has already had on fiscal projections.

WHAT DOES THE BUDGET DO FOR MINING?

The budget mentions a host of potential tax deferrals and other funds that may be applicable to your firm. Some of the notable budget commitments include:

• Creating the Protecting Ontario Account (POA), a fund of up to $5 billion designed to provide businesses with critical support to protect jobs, transform businesses, and grow strategic sectors of the economy. The POA will be leveraged to provide a variety of programs designed to support businesses affected by tariff-related disruptions, as needed. If you export to the U.S. and are impacted by the tariffs, you’ll want to look into this one.

• An additional $600 million to the Invest Ontario Fund to provide the agency greater stability in executing its mandate of job creation and investment attraction. This fund invests in businesses to grow across various sectors including mining.

• $500 million to create a new Critical Minerals Processing Fund (CMPF) – through the fund, Ontario will provide strategic financial support for projects that will accelerate the province’s critical minerals processing capacity, offering a stable supply of critical minerals mined in Ontario, to be used in the province’s broader manufacturing base, while also capitalizing on growing global demand.

• $10 million more in 2025–26 to extend the Ontario Junior Exploration Program (OJEP), which helps junior mining companies cover eligible costs for critical and precious mineral exploration and development. This is on top of the $35m already announced.

• An additional $5 million over two years in the Critical Minerals Innovation Fund (CMIF) starting in 2025–26, to encourage innovation in the critical minerals sector and reduce reliance on foreign sources of critical minerals and their processing.

• Investing $70 million over four years in the Indigenous Participation Fund (formerly known as the Aboriginal Participation Fund), starting in 2025–26. This investment will support Indigenous communities and organizations in areas of high mineral activity to improve capacity for participation in regulatory processes related to mineral exploration and mine development.

• The government is relaunching the province’s existing $1 billion Aboriginal Loan Guarantee Program (ALGP) as the new $3 billion Indigenous Opportunities Financing Program (IOFP) to support Indigenous participation in more sectors, including electricity, critical minerals, resource development and related infrastructure components, offering generational economic opportunities for Indigenous Peoples in Ontario. This could be a critical component for helping indigenous groups participate as owners in projects in their traditional territories and therefore, help move projects forward.

• Toughening up on short selling - The government continues to support the OSC and CIRO in strengthening the short selling regime in Ontario to protect market integrity. As part of this work, CIRO has proposed a mandatory close-out requirement designed to mitigate the occurrence of failed trades while the OSC is working on proposed rule amendments to prohibit short selling in connection with a prospectus offering or private placement. These measures would help mitigate against potential stock price manipulation actions, and would support junior mining companies listed on Ontario stock exchanges.

Overall there are a lot of additional supports from the Ontario government, including a commitment to move to a One Project, One Process approach to speed up permitting and other timelines. While the newly-elected Federal government will not have a public budget until the Fall, we fully expect both levels of government to continue to support critical infrastructure and economic projects.

You can find the full Ontario budget here. If you have a project in Ontario or Canada and are looking to engage different levels of government, we highly recommend our friends at S&A Strategies who helped with the analysis above.

KEEPING AN EYE ON GOVERNMENT DECISIONS

Here are some of the notable government policy moves this week:

• 🇨🇦 Nova Scotia added uranium to its critical minerals list and is now accepting proposals for uranium exploration in three areas known for deposits. Uranium exploration and mining had been banned since 1981 until the government lifted the ban in March. (CTV News)

• 🇺🇸 Following a Federal judges orders, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has reinstated nearly 200 workers who screen coal miners for black lung. The judge ordered a “full restoration” of services which is congressionally mandated by the Federal Coal Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969. The judge found that the dismissals would impact the screening availability for miners and therefore would cause public harm by increasing the costs of both prevention and future treatments - basically more cases of black lung due to less screening. We aren’t familiar with how efficient and effective this agency is, but having worked in coal mines, we are generally supportive of measures to protect workers and their health. (The Hill)

• 🇪🇺 Bernd Schaefer, CEO of EIT RawMaterials, said the European Union needs to get its stuff together and create a $10bn euro fund to support exploration, mining and recycling activities. He points to the United States that is very hands on in terms of investing in critical projects. We couldn’t agree more. Given the advanced manufacturing strength of some European nations, they should be acting yesterday. (Reuters)

• 🇪🇹 🇨🇳 Ethiopia signed deals worth $1.7bn with Chinese companies last week. The deals include a planned $500m investment by Hua Ye Mining Processing Company in minerals exploration and processing. Another $600m will come from Sequoia Mining & Processing Plc to develop coal mining projects, while another $360m will come from Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology to build a solar cell manufacturing plant, as reported by Reuters.

• 🇬🇳 Guinea continued on its warpath and revoked the licences of 46 mining companies operating in the nation. One source told Reuters that "These are just small, underperforming licences." Given the nations actions last week against several larger Bauxite players, this move could be seen as a warning shot at larger international companies to fall in line with government demands or risk losing their licenses. (Reuters)

• 🇲🇱 Mali’s Tribunal de Commerce court has moved its hearing to May 22nd, where it will hear the government’s case to put Barrick Mining’s operations under a provisional administration. The saga continues and this would be a major escalation. (Reuters)

• 🇲🇱 Kodal Minerals (LON: KOD) said it expects to receive an export permit soon for 27,000 metric tons of lithium concentrate stockpiled at its Bougouni project in Mali. At today’s prices that is about US$236.5m. With a market cap of $60m, this one is interesting. Of course, Mali isn’t exactly the bastion of trust, is it? (Reuters)

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MINING MATTERS FROM AROUND THE WORLD 🌎

• 🇨🇦 Foran Mining Corporation (TSX: FOM) announced a private placement of $350m. The placement consists of a subscription for approximately $156m from Canada Growth Fund Inc., approximately $90m from Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, approximately $75m from certain affiliates of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited, and approximately $28m from a significant institutional equity investor. Foran’s Executive Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Dan Myerson will subscribe for approximately $1m of the Offering. The net proceeds from the Offering will be used to complete construction at McIlvenna Bay, as well as for advancing exploration at near-mine and regional targets. The stock fell over 17% on the news, falling near the $3.00 subscription rate. Our take - it is great to see the confidence in the project as well as executive participation in the subscription. (Foran Mining)

• 🇬🇧 🇨🇦 London’s Adriatic Metals (LON: ADT1) is in early talks to be acquired by Toronto’s Dundee Precious Metals (TSX: DPM). Adriatic produces copper, gold, lead, silver and zinc from recently developed mining operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dundee has several exploration & development projects next door in Serbia as well as several producing mines in Bulgaria. While no specifics were leaked, bankers estimate any takeover offer would be worth at least £700m. The speculation sent Adriatic Metals flying, up nearly 25% on the day. (Sky News)

• 🇨🇦 Rio Tinto is investing US$1.2bn (CA$1.7bn) to modernize its Isle-Maligne hydroelectric power plant, commissioned in 1926 in Alma, Quebec. The project will run until 2032, with an estimation of more than 300 people working on the site at its peak. The power plant modernization is essential to secure the future of low-carbon aluminum production in Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean. Despite U.S. tariffs, its a safe bet that Quebec aluminum will stay highly competitive in the long-run due to cheap hydroelectric power, so we like this investment a lot. (Rio Tinto)

• 🇨🇱 Rio Tinto and Codelco have signed binding agreements to form a joint venture to develop and operate a high-grade lithium project in the Salar de Maricunga in Chile. Rio Tinto will acquire a 49.99% interest in the project in exchange for up to $900m in funding for studies and development costs. (Rio Tinto)

• 🇳🇪 🇫🇷 France’s state-owned nuclear fuel company Orano is exploring the sale of it’s assets in the Western African nation of Niger. Orano has lost control of its mines and is now taking that issue to international arbitration. Despite the situation, Orano says "several parties have expressed their interest in the mining assets of the group in Niger and are at liberty to submit offers if they wish to". We hope those companies are from a nation that is on friendly terms with the military-led government in Niger. (Reuters)

• 🇨🇩 🇨🇳 China’s CMOC Group called on the Democratic Republic of Congo to lift export bans next month in a closed-door meeting in Singapore that Congo’s Minister of Mines attended. On the opposite side, traders from Glencore said prices needed to stabilize before the ban was lifted. It seems to us there is a difference between companies operating in the national security interest versus companies needing to operate at a profit. "The most likely scenario appears to be either an extension of the ban followed by the introduction of an export quota, or a direct transition to an export quota starting in late June," Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said in a recent release. We may be biased, but if OPEC+ manages their own production, it only makes sense that the Congo would try to do the same to protect pricing. (Reuters)

• 🇺🇸 Ucore Rare Metals Inc. (TSXV: UCU) announced a US$18.4m funding agreement with the US Department of Defense that will help facilitate the construction of a production-ready commercial RapidSX™ machine and supporting infrastructure in Alexandria, Louisiana. (Ucore)

• 🇺🇸 Clarios, a battery maker owned by global investment firm Brookfield, is looking to build a $1bn critical minerals processing and recovery plant in the U.S. and is looking at Indiana, Texas and Utah as possible locations. The plant will extract antimony and other critical minerals from recycled materials. We wonder what goodies each state is offering for the project, if any. (Reuters)

MINING BITS

• 🇿🇦 The BBC takes a look at illegal South Africa mines and the sexual trafficking of children to miners. The story contains details, including a video, that some people may find distressing. A stark reminder that illegal mining operations can have significant human costs among others. (BBC)

• 🇿🇦 Mike Miller, CEO of the JSE-listed Mantengu Mining (JSE: MTU) made some Hollywood worthy claims against opponents who he says manipulated Mantengu’s stock into the ground. He claims his allegations have led to a hit being put on him and his CFO, drones flying over their office building, and suspicious people with AK-47 rifles following them. One of the organizations he has accused as a front is Liberty Coal. They dismissed the allegations, calling Miller a “delusional fantasist who suffers from some form of unhinged narcissism”. We aren’t sure what is going on here, but we did enjoy this read. (BusinessTech)

• 🇺🇸 The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Northwestern University’s Medill Investigative Lab in Washington D.C., collaborate and take a look into issues with the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund. Launched in 1977, the fund was created to pay benefits to sick miners when coal companies went bankrupt, but the fund which pays between $785 and $1,571 per month, is now $5bn in debt. The article takes shot at the coal industry, their lobbyists and medical teams, while the National Mining Association points out that coal companies have paid over $23bn into the fund over the decades which more than paid for the claims on record. The article is clearly a response to the recent decision by The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to fire and then reinstate nearly 200 workers who screen coal miners for black lung. (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

• 🌕 At the end of April, a dedicated Working Group of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space released a draft set of recommended principles for space resource activities. Michelle L.D. Hanlon, a professor of air and space law at the University of Mississippi, says that these principles do not directly address the opposing concepts of access and protection. Instead, they defer to Article I of the Outer Space Treaty and reaffirm that everyone has free access to all areas of the Moon and other celestial bodies. She argues that as more countries and companies race to reach the moon, a clear legal framework should be developed to avoid conflicts and preserve historical sites. We guess that means that $10 we paid to name a star doesn’t give us ownership rights. (Fast Company)

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