January 8th, 2025 - The Mine Wire

METALS MARKET

Commodity prices have seen a bounce back in the first week of January with WTI Crude performing well due to concerns over Russian and Iranian oil supply and escalating Western sanctions.

The commodity winner for 2024? Well it just may be Antimony which saw a 250% increase year on year as China put export bans on the critical mineral. Germanium is also up 83.51% the past year which is also on the banned list. One of the winners in all of this is Perpetua Resources (TSX: PPTA) which has seen a 147.18% increase over the past 6 months and passed a $1bn market cap. Why? Due to their Antimony & Gold project in Idaho, United States.

^{**For our chart above we are taking prices from Tuesday 4pm EST to Tuesday 4pm EST, so not the typical week of Monday through Friday.}

SPECIAL REPORT - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Resigns

As we reported in The Mine Wire before the Christmas break, the Federal Liberal government was thrown into turmoil when the Deputy Prime Minister & Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, resigned suddenly right before the Fall Economic Statement.

The fallout over the holidays was Liberal MP’s calling for the resignation of the Prime Minister, followed by public letters from well represented provincial caucuses calling for his resignation. Our take? Trudeau would have held on to the bitter end if there was a route for him to do so, but unfortunately for him, too many of his MP’s were against him for him to hang onto power in a minority government situation. Further, all major opposition parties said they would support a vote of non-confidence which would lead to an immediate election.

SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

The Prime Minister asked the Governor General to prorogue parliament until March 24th which was approved and he publicly stated he would resign once a new leader has been selected. That means that Parliament is halted until that time and any previously introduced legislative bills are “dead” and will have to be re-introduced when Parliament comes back.

WHEN WILL A NEW LEADER BE CHOSEN?

Well here is the kicker - current Liberal Party by-laws on leadership races don’t line up with the return of Parliament on March 24th. Candidates are meant to have a 3 month nomination period to collect the needed signatures to enter the race and then you have the length of the actual leadership race. However, the Liberal Party’s elected executive have the ability to change these rules with a 2/3’s majority if “political circumstances” demand it.

There is now a chorus of folks calling for a quick, condensed leadership contest with a leader chosen by current Liberal MP’s and potentially a few other select folks. Others, like PM Trudeau, support a lengthier open leadership race. It has been rumored that Chrystia Freeland who brought down Trudeau, has been making calls the past few weeks and is pushing for a short race. Her chances of winning are likely better if it is up to Liberal MP’s and not Liberal party members. Trudeau in his resignation speech, talked up how closely he worked with Freeland while he was leader, a potentially sneaky jab to remind Liberals that she was a major part of his government and its decision making.

Other leadership hopefuls include Mark Carney, Dominic Leblanc, Mélanie Joly, Christy Clark, François-Philippe Champagne, Anita Anand, Karina Gould, Jonathan Wilkinson and Frank Baylis. Only Carney, Clark and Baylis are not current Ministers in PM Trudeau’s government.

It is just our opinion, but we think this is much more about saving the furniture at this point than actually having a shot a winning the next election. Canadians have soured on the Liberal Party generally and this government looks destined for a long time-out.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MINING? 

Well those tax incentives that were celebrated in December will not come to fruition until government returns to Parliament. The problem? A non-confidence vote could be called in March with an election in May 2025. This means a lot of uncertainty as we would have to wait until after an election to see what the elected party wants to do on this front. Further, the mineral exploration tax credit which has been “temporary” but continuously extended in each budget, will now likely be pushed out until a new budget can be introduced post-leadership/or election and isn’t guaranteed under new leadership.

With that said, an upcoming election is an opportunity for leadership change which will hopefully have a government more serious about tackling permitting timelines, capital gains and tax incentives, infrastructure investments in the north as well as the removal of the carbon tax (which is expected to happen even under a new Liberal leader unless it is Mark Carney who has been supportive of this initiative).

KEEPING AN EYE ON GOVERNMENT DECISIONS

Here are some of the notable government policy moves this week:

• 🇨🇦 Well there is clearly no love lost between President-elect Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau. The incoming President has taken aim at Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada and Mexico. Since we are based in Canada at The Mine Wire, we can vouch that most Canadians DO NOT want to become the 51st state, despite what Kevin O’Leary might be peddling. However, we can safely guess that Canadians would happily take Hawaii off the United States hands if they’d like to allow a self-determination referendum in that state. In all seriousness though, Eric Nuttall, Partner and Senior Portfolio Manager with Ninepoint Partners LP, makes a great point: if you remove oil and gas from the trade calculation, the United States has a SURPLUS of $58bn when it comes to trade with Canada. Let’s hope that cooler heads prevail as the two countries have historically been extremely close allies.

• 🇺🇸 President Biden blocked the takeover of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel last Friday, citing national security concerns. President-elect Trump had also signaled that he was against the takeover and would block the deal. U.S. Steel CEO David Burritt called the decision “shameful & corrupt” and said that the company would fight the decision. (Reuters)

• 🇺🇸 The U.S. Department of Energy announced $45m in funding for six projects to create regional consortia to accelerate the development of critical mineral and materials supply chains including novel nonfuel carbon-based products from secondary and unconventional feedstocks. (DOE)

• 🇸🇻 El Salvador’s congress approved a law in late December that would lift the 7 year mining ban in that country. The President is expected to approve the law which he helped push. Exploration has shown the country has both gold and silver deposits although the size and scale of the country’s reserves are an unknown. (AP News) 

• 🇸🇪 Another country looking to lift a ban is Sweden. In February last year, Climate and Environment Minister Romina Pourmokhtari, announced that an inquiry would look into lifting its uranium mining ban that has been in place since 2018. In late December the inquiry published its conclusions and recommended that uranium be regulated as a "concession mineral" under the Minerals Act. (World Nuclear News)

• 🇨🇳 China’s Commerce Ministry has proposed export restrictions on some technology used to make battery components and process critical minerals lithium and gallium. The move would ensure that China maintains its dominance in Lithium processing as the technology comes largely from China. The changes are open for public comment until February 1st, 2025 and it looks like this could be one of the first retaliatory measures against Trump should he increase tariffs on Chinese goods. (Reuters)

• 🇲🇳 Mongolia has said that it reached a preliminary agreement with Orano Mining Group to develop a uranium mining project worth $1.6bn, with an initial investment of $500m. (Reuters)

• 🇦🇺 The Association of Mining & Exploration Companies (AMEC) in Australia is calling on the Federal government to extend the Junior Minerals Exploration Incentive for another four years and increase the funding to $200 million of allocations, at minimum. AMEC commissioned a study by BDO which showed a remarkable ROI on tax credits from 2017-2024. It showed that $182.2m in credits generated $769m in GDP, $391m in government revenue as well as $5.9bn in expected mineral production. We like it! (AMEC)

MINING MATTERS FROM AROUND THE WORLD 🌎

• 🇰🇿 Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) said it was informed by their joint venture partner, Kazatomprom, and Joint Venture Inkai LLP, that as of January 1, 2025, JV Inkai has suspended production activity. Cameco was told that an extension to operations was not approved by the Kazakhstan Ministry of Energy at year end due to a delayed submission. (Cameco)

• 🇲🇱 The drama in Mali between Barrick and the ruling military junta continues. Restrictions on shipments were already a cause for concern but now authorities have issued an interim order against the existing gold stock at Loulo-Gounkoto which means that the 4 metric tons of gold on-hand will likely be seized. By our calculations that is about $340m - a lot of cheddar cheese. Barrick has said it will cease operations in the coming week if the shipping restrictions are not lifted. We are not surprised. Mining gold to be seized doesn’t seem like a profitable endeavor to continue. (Reuters)

• 🇺🇸 The Bill Gates & Jeff Bezos backed KoBold Metals raised $537m in its series C funding round which valued the company at $2.96bn. Lots of champagne popping we are sure, although we have a feeling they are just getting started. (Financial Times)

• 🇺🇸 Congratulations to Phoenix Tailings which raised $43m in a Series B round which included BMW I Ventures, Yamaha Motors as well as venture capital funds Envisioning Partners, MPower and Escape Velocity. Phoenix Tailings specializes in refining rare earth metals used in magnets for applications ranging from defense to renewable energy. Its groundbreaking approach extracts metals from traditional ores and unconventional sources like recycled materials and mining waste (tailings) without creating toxic byproducts. The company’s CEO said the funding will be used to build a $13m facility in Exeter, New Hampshire, that cand produce 200 metric tons of rare earths annually. (Reuters)

• 💲Congratulations to the 2025 BHP Xplor critical minerals accelerator program winners. The eight companies selected are: Scout Discoveries (USA), Orogen Royalties (USA), Condor Prospecting (Argentina), Viridian Metals (Canada), DesertEx (Saudi Arabia), Electrum Discovery Corp. (Serbia), Firetail Resources (Peru) and GreenX Metals (Germany). (BHP)

• 🇨🇦 Congratulations to Manganese X Corp. (TSXV: MN) which received a $2,000,000 investment from Eric Sprott. The stock shot up 137.50% the past 5 days so we guess others like the vote of support from a well-known mining name like Sprott. (Manganese X Corp.)

THE 8th ANNUAL GROUNDUP NETWORKING RECEPTION

The Mine Wire & Investor.Events Present the 8th Annual GROUNDUP Networking Reception at the PDAC featuring VIP Poker Tournament - Register here:

• The GROUNDUP Networking Reception (4pm to 7pm)

• VIP Poker Tournament (7pm to 11pm)

The GROUNDUP Networking Reception: Join us at the Walrus Pub & Beer Hall for a night of networking, drinks, and industry insights. Rub elbows with top investors, mining executives, and industry professionals. Whether you're a seasoned pro or just starting out, this event is perfect for anyone looking to make valuable connections.

VIP Poker Tournament: a Tournament for Mining Executives, Investors, Brokers & Industry Professionals in town for the PDAC - a Night of Fun, Networking, and Good Vibes!

CONFIRMED INDUSTRY SPONSORS: Maptek, Venture Liquidity Providers, Corpay, Endeavour Trust, Winning Media , CEC Mining Systems, AMIX Systems, UPLISTING Advisory Services, OTC Markets, Mitsubishi Motors, Whitewater Management, Int-Elle, Mining Hub, Paycore Drilling, Garfinkle Biderman LLP, Perves Redmond Limited, 6ix

MINING BITS

• 🇰🇷 The Korea Times takes a look at the country’s ban on women working inside mining pits and how Canadian miner Almonty Industries is working around that regulation to ensure female representation. “Female employees at Almonty Korea Tungsten Corp. (AKTC) contribute significantly to key areas such as human resources, administration, finance, and community and public relations, playing essential roles in both operational excellence and strategic planning,” Almonty CEO Lewis Black tells The Korea Times. Lots of other good quotes in this article and worth a read. (The Korea Times)

• 🇩🇪 Although we expect it is very basic to you environmental experts, we enjoyed listening to this podcast where they take a look at Cottbuser Ostsee lake in Germany. The site was once a mining pit but is set to become the largest artificial lake in Germany once it's completed. We think it is a great example of what reclamation can look like post-mine. (NPR)

• 🇺🇿 We got a kick out of this one. It looks like Uzbekistan is launching new types of tourism activities. These include giving local and international tourists the opportunity to witness explosions in mines, engage in paid shooting activities at shooting ranges, and visit government and scientific organizations' buildings. (KUN.UZ)

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