February 19th, 2025 - The Mine Wire

METALS MARKET

🇦🇺 With inflation easing, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 4.1% on Tuesday, the first reduction since November 2020. The bank’s board remained cautious on future cuts given a strong labor market and upside risks to inflation: "While today's policy decision recognizes the welcome progress on inflation, the Board remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing."

The biggest commodity losers this past month have been Coal (-13.67%), Cobalt (-11.32%) and Uranium (-9.90%). The biggest gainers? Gold (+8.22%) and Silver (+7.58%) which have benefited from market uncertainties.

^{**For our chart above we are taking prices from Tuesday 4pm EST to Tuesday 4pm EST, so not the typical week of Monday through Friday.}

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KEEPING AN EYE ON GOVERNMENT DECISIONS

Here are some of the notable government policy moves this week:

• 🇨🇩 The M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have seized Bukavu, the 2nd most populist city in the east and also on the border with Rwanda. Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi spoke at the Munich Security Conference this week, asking for support to end the war. (Reuters)

• 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Also at the security conference were Ukraine President Zelenskiy and a U.S. delegation led by Vice-President JD Vance. Days earlier, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was in Kyiv to put a deal in front of Zelenskiy. According to sources, the deal asked for 50% of Ukraine’s critical minerals and didn’t offer any guarantees on security. Not surprisingly, Ukraine rejected the deal with the President saying, "it's not in our interest today, not in (the) interest of (a) sovereign Ukraine." (Reuters)

• 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that The United States "would love to" see Australia supplying uranium for nuclear power while speaking at a conference by the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship. He said, "I would love to see Australia get in the game of supplying uranium, maybe going down that nuclear road themselves." Polling has showed the Australian public to be somewhat split on the idea of nuclear. The Coalition’s Peter Dutton has promised to invest in nuclear power should they win the upcoming election. (Reuters)

• 🇺🇸 A number of changes will impact publicly listed companies in the United States. First Institutional Shareholder Services said it will no longer consider the gender, racial or ethnic diversity of U.S. company boards when making its voting recommendations given the presidential order on DEI. Secondly, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission revised guidance to make it easier for companies to avoid bringing shareholder resolutions to a vote at annual meetings. Resolutions related to climate change and workplace diversity have become more commonplace in recent years and this has been seen as a distraction by some Republican lawmakers. (Reuters) & (Reuters)

• 🇨🇦 Quebec’s Premier François Legault called for an export tax on Canadian aluminum to the United States, in retaliation to President Donald Trump's 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum. Since 75 per cent of North America’s aluminum comes from Quebec, manufacturers in the United States would be punished even further by an export tax. John Murphy, SVP & Head of International at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said, “The American workers who would stand to benefit from a 25% tariff on aluminum imports are outnumbered 177-to-1 by American workers employed in downstream industries who would be harmed by the tariffs.” Let’s hope cooler heads prevail before March 12th implementation date. (CBC)

• 🇮🇩 Indonesia’s Parliament amended a law in order to give companies who plan to build processing facilities priority access to mining concessions, taking into account the size of their investment, the value addition and job creation. According to Reuters the bill also requires those at the “Operation Production” stage to prioritize supplying their products to the domestic market over exports. (Reuters)

• 🇨🇰 🇨🇳 🇳🇿 The Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown ruffled some serious feathers in New Zealand by signing a pact with China that includes seabed mining but excludes a security partnership. New Zealand said it was not consulted on the agreement. The Cook Islands is a self-governing nation and maintains free association with New Zealand, sharing a head of state and citizenship rights. It is permitted an independent foreign policy, but the two countries are required to consult on security, defense and foreign policy issues. Not involving New Zealand seems short-sighted to us, especially since the country is reconsidering its stance against seabed mining. However, we suspect the Prime Minister was looking for quick action so the devil will be in the deal’s details so to speak. (BBC)

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MINING MATTERS FROM AROUND THE WORLD 🌎

• 🇧🇷 Brazilian miner Vale SA announced a whopping $70bn real (USD $12.2bn) investment to expand its iron ore and copper mining operations at the Carajas complex in Brazil. At the announcement, Brazilian President Lula said, "It is important that Vale takes into account that it has to distribute dividends to shareholders… But it is also important that it takes into account that it has to invest in order to grow, to generate jobs". (Vale SA)

• 🇬🇧 🇨🇳 🇧🇷 Anglo American is another miner that has been vocal about its intent to focus on iron ore and copper. As part of its strategy to shed non-core assets, it has announced that it will sell its nickel business to a unit of Hong Kong-listed MMG Ltd, for USD $500m. The nickel business comprises two ferronickel operations in Brazil as well as two high quality greenfield growth projects. (Anglo American)

• 🇨🇦 Mark Bristow was making waves this week when he publicly stated that a Donald Trump presidency could make it easier for Barrick Gold Corp to redomicile from Canada to the United States. The gold mining giant currently generates $6.62bn in revenue from mines in the United States compared to $320m in Canada. And while there is certainly merit in the argument that joining the S&P 500 would benefit shareholders, Mr. Bristow might want to read the room a little better. What did readers learn from the globe article? That Mr. Bristow lives in Mauritius, that British Columbia has less stringent requirements than Ontario for Board of Directors to be Canadian and finally, that mining legend and Barrick Gold founder Peter Munk, was staunchly against Barrick Gold ever leaving Canada. Shout-out to Clive Johnson, CEO of B2Gold, who said, “We’re a proudly Canadian company and wouldn’t consider a move like that.” (Globe & Mail)

• 🇦🇺 Mining billionaire Robert Friedland’s latest venture, iron ore producer Ivanhoe Atlantic Inc., is seeking to raise as much as A$300m (USD$190m) from an initial public offering in Australia according to sources. The funds will be used to develop a major iron-ore project in Guinea. The company chose to list in Australia given investors familiarity with iron-ore. (Financial Post)

• 🇫🇷 Congratulations to Paulo Castellari who will become French mining group Eramet’s next CEO. Since 2019, Paulo Castellari has been CEO of the Brazilian branch of Appian Capital Advisory, a mining-focused private-equity group. Prior to that, he had a lengthy career in executive leadership roles at Anglo American, CEMIG and Guinea Alumina Corporation. (Eramet)

• 🇧🇪 Belgium’s metals recycling and battery materials company Umicore saw its 2024 revenue fall from €3.4bn from €3.9bn the year before. The company said that this was due to several headwinds including slower-than-expected growth in demand for electric vehicles as well as declining metal prices. Umicore said that it has been taking steps to reassess its growth projections and to further adjust its capital expenditures as well as its cost base to the new market reality. Back in July 2024, the company announced it was halting construction of its $2.76bn battery project near Kingston, Ontario. The Federal and Ontario governments were slated to kick-in nearly $1bn in funding for the project. Maybe they should reallocate that money to mining exploration and development? (Umicore)

• 🇨🇦 On the topic of government funding, congratulations to Canada Nickel Company (CVC: CNE) which received $3.4m from the Government of Canada to support the development of Canada Nickel's proprietary In-Process Tailings Carbonation process at the pilot plant level. (PRNewswire)

• 💲 Some companies with earnings this past week included: Kinross Gold Corp (TSX: K), Albemarle (NYSE: ALB), Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM) and Antofagasta (LON: ANTO). Albemarle’s stock is up almost 14% the past week while Kinross has seen it’s stock decline almost 6% since earnings. The gold miner is still up 133.67% the past year - a return we’d love to duplicate over and over.

MINING BITS

• 🇨🇦 We really enjoyed this in-depth look at the resurgence of mining in Canada and it’s overall impact on the GDP, employment and exports. The sector directly employed 82,805 Canadians in 2023 compared to 45,986 in 2004 and now accounts for 2% of GDP, compared to 0.9% in 2000. Further, 44% of metal exports go to international markets, while 93.4% of automotive products and 80.7% of energy products go to the United States. The author argues that mining is a critical industry for Canada especially with U.S. tariffs looming but policy makers need to take action on land disputes, burdensome regulations, and underdeveloped infrastructure that have delayed promising mineral deposits like Ontario’s Ring of Fire. We couldn’t agree more. (MLI) 

• 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Philip Luck & Evan Brown from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. argue that unilateral tariffs on aluminum and steel by the United States will raise prices, cost American jobs, and strain alliances. It is clear from OECD estimates that China’s steel subsidies are a major concern. They are more than five times higher than other non-OECD economies and more than 10 times higher than OECD countries. Luck & Brown argue that engaging like-minded allies to counter China’s unfair subsidies and dumping practices is the way to go instead of isolating itself in a “Fortress America.” We agree, but we are probably biased! Worth a read. (CSIS)

• 🇺🇸 Cummins Inc. has announced that it has acquired the assets of First Mode, a leader in retrofit hybrid solutions for mining and rail operations. First Mode, posted to its homepage, “Following the decision of First Mode’s majority shareholder, Anglo American, to conclude its funding of First Mode as part of its capital prioritization program, Cummins Inc. has acquired the majority of First Mode’s assets and staff.” (First Mode)

• 🇨🇦 We really enjoyed this Globe & Mail interview with BHP’s CEO, Mike Henry. He speaks to why BHP is investing in copper over lithium, why the Tier 1 miner is pumping billions into a potash project in Saskatchewan and why Canada needs to make permitting reform a top priority. (Globe & Mail)

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