April 30th, 2025 - The Mine Wire

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SPECIAL REPORT: CANADA ELECTS MARK CARNEY & THE LIBERALS

A Two-Party Race

In what was one of the most interesting elections in Canadian history, the Liberals won government for a rare fourth term on Monday night with a new mandate from Canadians. The Liberals fell 3 seats short of the 172 seats needed for a majority government, but should be able to work with various other parties to govern.

So What The Heck Happened?

If you had placed a bet in 2024, you would have picked Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives to win this election. But two major things happened. First, the highly unpopular Liberal leader Justin Trudeau resigned allowing Mark Carney to take the helm, and second, the U.S. President Donald Trump took aim at Canada and its sovereignty.

The perfect mix of events helped the Liberals soar over 25% in the polls as Mark Carney sold himself as the best person to fight President Trump. In the end, roughly 19.58 million Canadians voted (68.65% voter turnout) which was higher than the 62.6% turnout in the previous election.

• Liberal - 169 seats (8,561,850 votes or 43.7%)

• Conservative - 144 seats (8,083,419 or 41.3%)

• Bloc Québécois - 22 seats (1,232,794 or 6.3%)

• New Democratic Party - 7 seats (1,236,972 or 6.3%)

• Green Party of Canada - 1 seat (244,920 or 1.3%)

The Liberal win came at the expense of both the BQ and the NDP. Meanwhile, the Conservatives managed to increase their share of the vote in every province and territory across Canada. They managed to increase their number of seats by winning key ridings previously held by both the Liberals and the NDP. Despite Pierre Poilievre losing his own seat in the Ottawa suburb of Carleton, the party had its best performance since 1988 when Brian Mulroney was at the helm.

Given the close race and strong popular support for the Conservatives, we would fully expect Pierre Poilievre to stay on as leader. On the flip side, the NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh resigned on election night as the party lost official status while he lost his own seat. Losing party status is unfortunate as the party loses a significant budget to pay for staffing and research while also limiting their ability to ask questions in the House of Commons. If we were the Liberals, we’d be working on 3 MP’s to cross the floor from the NDP in order to form a majority government. Whatever the outcome, we hope that all of the parties work together to strengthen and diversify Canada’s economy.

So What Does This Mean For The Economy & Mining In Particular?

The Liberals specifically mentioned mining and critical minerals in their election platform. Some specific commitments include:

• Connect critical mineral projects to supply chains through a new First and Last Mile Fund (FLMF). This will make more projects viable and create a more integrated and accessible Canadian economy.

• Directly support clean energy and critical mineral projects through the FLMF, reducing our reliance on other countries and protecting Canadian jobs. This will include supporting on-site development, processing, and refining capacity.

• Accelerate exploration and extraction, including investing in prospecting activities and recovering valuable minerals from end-of-life products like mining waste and batteries, contributing to a circular economy.

• Attract, expand, and derisk investments in critical minerals exploration and extraction through the expansion of existing tax credits.

• Broadening the Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit by expanding qualifying minerals to include critical minerals necessary for defence, semiconductors, energy, and other clean technologies.

• Expanding eligible activities under Canadian exploration expenses to include the costs of technical studies, such as engineering, economic and feasibility studies for critical minerals projects.

• Modifying the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit to include critical mineral mine development expenses for brownfield sites while expanding the list of priority critical minerals. This will accelerate how we get critical minerals from “rock to road” and will create good jobs.

• Invest in ourselves by providing funding for projects of national and economic significance and leveraging the Canada Growth Fund to accelerate private investment in Canadian critical minerals projects. This will deliver strong value for taxpayers and make Canada an even more attractive market for investments.

• Get big projects built quickly by establishing “One Window” project decisions through a Major Federal Project Office and effectively shifting the focus of project review from “why” to “how.”

• Require the new Major Federal Project Office to render final decisions on projects on a maximum two-year timeline, much faster than the former government’s five-year timeline. This will include where other federal decisions are required, including under the Fisheries Act, the Species at Risk Act, and other federal legislation.

• Move forward with One Project, One Review within six month with cooperating jurisdictions.

There were also commitments in other sectors like AI and it’s adoption which may be of interest to some subscribers. In the end, we expect the Liberals to continue to make specific investments in worthwhile projects while offering a host of other supports. The question for us is whether they can actually work with other levels of government and Indigenous groups to reduce permitting times and speed up critical project approvals. There has been a lot of lip service paid to improving these times from many governments across Canada, but the proof will be in the pudding. While we are hopeful given the geopolitical situation, we aren’t holding our breath just yet.

As always, if you are looking for government relations support at the Federal level, we would highly recommend you reach out to S&A Strategies, a boutique government relations firm based in Toronto. While they have specific experience and expertise in accessing government funding on behalf of mining and processing projects, they also offer a wide-range of advocacy and public affairs services.

KEEPING AN EYE ON GOVERNMENT DECISIONS

Here are some of the notable government policy moves this week:

• 🇺🇸 President Trump got a lot of coverage for his executive order aimed at seabed mining. While the order directs the government to develop plans and issue reports related to seabed mining, it also instructs the Secretary of Commerce to expedite the process for reviewing and issuing exploration and commercial recovery permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act. The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) wasted no time and asked the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for a commercial recovery permit to operate in a part of the Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Mexico known as the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. China has spoken out against the U.S. giving out permits in international waters as it has its own eye on some of these areas. The Center for Strategic & International Studies published a great Q&A on the executive order and its potential implications. (The White House) & (CSIS)

• 🇺🇸 The Department of the Interior announced that it is implementing emergency permitting procedures to strengthen domestic energy supply. This will impact uranium, coal and critical minerals among other sectors. Most notably, projects requiring a full environmental impact statement, typically a two-year process, will be reviewed in roughly 28 days. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said, “The United States cannot afford to wait,” in response to President Trump’s declaration of a National Energy Emergency. (U.S. Dept. of Interior)

• 🇨🇦 The Ontario government said this week that there are no safeguards in place to prevent adversarial foreign governments or corporations or bad actors from claiming critical minerals or participating in the energy sector in Ontario. That is why the Protect Ontario by Unleashing our Economy Act will give the government the ability to deny the transfer or lease of a mining claim, or when necessary, revoke a mining claim registration or terminate a lease. (Ontario Government)

• 🇦🇺 Australia heads to the polls this Saturday. As part of the election campaign, Prime Minister Albanese of the ruling centre-left Labor government pledged an initial investment of A$1.2 billion (US$763 million) to set up a strategic reserve of critical minerals. We like this commitment. Given China’s move to restrict the export of its own minerals and rare earths, this could give Australia a bargaining chip with the United States if it can become a reliable partner and alternative source to China. The Labor government is currently leading in the polls although the race it tight. (Reuters)

• 🇬🇭 The Ghana government and Gold Fields reached an agreement on a transitional plan for the Damang mine which grants the company an extension of 12 months. During this time, Gold Fields will resume open-pit mining and conduct feasibility studies to establish Damang's reserves and mine life. Gold Fields Tarkwa mine which has higher volumes is also up for renewal in 2027. The two sides have agreed to start discussions on that renewal. (Gold Fields)

• 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Congo and Rwanda have agreed to come up with a peace deal by May 2nd, while also pulling any military support from armed groups - meaning the Rwanda backed M23 rebel group. Both the United States and Qatar have been acting a mediators between Congo and Rwanda/the rebels. The United States wants access to Congo’s vast mineral wealth. Fingers crossed that this leads to peace and economic development in the region. (U.S. Department of State)

• 🇧🇫 Burkino Faso announced that it has granted Russia’s Nordgold an industrial mining license for a gold project. Yet, in the same week, the country’s Prime Minister said the country plans to take control of more foreign-owned industrial mines as it looks to gain control over its own resources and boost its revenues. Companies in the country include IAMGOLD Corporation and West Africa Resources. (Reuters)

THE MINE WIRE RECEPTION at CIM CONNECT

The Mine Wire is thrilled to bring you our 2nd Annual GetConnected! Reception at the CIM Conference 2025 in Montreal next month!

📅 New Date: Monday, May 5th

⏰ Time: 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM

📍 Location: 3 Brasseurs Saint-Paul - 105 Rue Saint-Paul E, Montréal, QC H2Y 1G7

®️ Register Now at Eventbrite

Join us for the 2nd Annual CIM GetConnected! Mine Suppliers Reception — hosted by The Mine Wire and presented with pride by DIAMOND Sponsors Kalenborn Abresist & Int-Elle, GOLD Sponsor CEC Mining Systems, and BRONZE Sponsors X-Glo North America, Mine Vision Systems.

Get ready for a high-energy evening of networking, innovation, and industry connections. Meet top suppliers, explore cutting-edge products, and build lasting relationships in a relaxed, engaging atmosphere.

Sponsorship opportunities are still available — reach out to showcase your brand at this unforgettable event! Reach out to [email protected] 

MINING MATTERS FROM AROUND THE WORLD 🌎

• 🇦🇺 🇨🇦 Australia’s Alkane Resources (ASX: ALK) and Canada’s Mandalay Resources (TSX: MND) are intending a “merger of equals” to create a combined company that will continue under the name “Alkane Resources”. The transaction will create a diversified Australian-centric gold and antimony producer with a portfolio of three operating mines, two in Australia and one in Sweden. (Alkane Resources)

• 🇨🇦 Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: GOLD) announced that it will change its name to Barrick Mining Corp. to reflect its focus on both gold and copper. The Company also plans to change its ticker symbol for the Barrick common shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange from ‘GOLD’ to ‘B’, to become effective at the start of trading on May 9, 2025. We can only imagine that some others would love to have that ‘GOLD’ ticker symbol! (Barrick)

• 🇸🇪 🇺🇸 Congratulations to Sandvik which landed a roughly SEK 750m (US$77.75m) deal with South32 to supply an underground mining equipment fleet for its greenfield Hermosa critical minerals project in Arizona. The majority of the order consists of battery-electric vehicles and is Sandvik's largest ever order for this type. (PR Newswire)

• 🇦🇺 🇺🇸 Australia’s Victory Metals (ASX: VTM) announced that the Export-Import Bank of the United States offered it up to US$190m in project financing support for the development of Victory’s North Stanmore Heavy Rare Earths, Scandium and Hafnium Project in Western Australia. Definitely sounds like a stamp of approval to us - congrats to the Victory Metals team. (Victory Metals)

MINING BITS

• 🇦🇺 Forbes takes a look at Gina Rinehart and her $800m bet on rare earths. With a 8.5% stake in MP Materials worth $317m, a 8.2% stake in Lynas Rare Earths worth $430m, a 10% holding in Arafura and a 6% stake in Brazilian Rare Earths, the Australian billionaire is pushing for rationalization in the industry to better compete with China. An interesting read and given current geopolitics, a smart bet by Rinehart we think. (Forbes)

• 🇺🇸 Techcrunch takes a look at American company Xerion and its new technique to produce highly refined cobalt in a single step using electricity and a little bit of heat. The company is opening a pilot-scale production facility in Dayton, Ohio, where it will be able to produce five metric tons of cobalt per year. John Busbee, co-founder and CEO, says the pilot facility is already competitive with China given their unique process and technology. Pretty interesting. (Techcrunch)

• 🇬🇧 Contestants in Yorkshire competed on Monday in the “World Coal Carrying Championships.” Yes you heard that right. Women carried a 20kg sack while men carried a 50kg sack along a 1.1km (0.68 miles) course. This unique British Easter tradition sounds like a great team-building exercise, although we aren’t sure we’d be able to finish. Lots of great pictures. (AP News)

• 🇨🇦 COOL JOB ALERT! The Association for Mineral Exploration (AME) is looking for a new President & CEO. The organization is the lead association for the mineral exploration and development industry based in British Columbia. Lincoln Strategic has been engaged to oversee the search. Learn more here —> (LinkedIn)

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